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College

College of Science and Engineering

Major

Mathematics

Faculty Mentor

John Carter

Faculty Editor

Mark MacLean

Student Editor

Amelia Carey

Abstract

As if being the first Wimbledon winner in over 20 years whose name wasn’t Djokovic, Federer, Murray, or Nadal wasn’t enough, Carlos Alcaraz’s victory was even more astonishing considering he came back after being handily dealt with by Djokovic in the first set of the final 1-6. Alcaraz’s miraculous recovery might be explained by a shift of flow in the game in his favor. In this paper, we compare two models that both interpret a small amount of past data within a given tennis match to determine which player has the current advantage, or “flow,” in the next game. We then analyze the data provided to us, determine the advantages one player may have over another, and use them to further enhance our models. Afterward, we discuss our findings and how our model could be improved. We finish by generalizing our model to predict what would change if the tournament was held on a different playing surface or if it was used in Women’s Professional Tennis.

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